NCDEX Dec Turmeric fell to one and half-year low on Monday due to anticipation of good crop next season and lower exports. As per data released by Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of Sep 2018, up 16.5% on year to 9,064 tonnes (Vs 7,783 tonnes). Turmeric exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Sep) is up 10.6% at 65,547 tonnes compared to 59,285 last year for the same time. During the November, arrivals of turmeric have been higher at 12,067 t (Vs 9,547 t) compared last year, as per Agmarknet data.

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NCDEX Jeera futures closed higher on Monday due to some fresh buying initiated by market participants. However, it corrected from the high of 19,035 levels to close at 18,849. It was down almost 9.5% in November and now slipped about 4.5% from its high in December on expectation of improving acreage on reports of providing water in canal for irrigation for rabi crop by govt of Gujarat. As per data release by State Agriculture Department of Gujarat, area under cumin in the state is pegged at 199,455 ha (vs 122,000 ha last week) as on 03-Dec, down 25% on year. Last year area was 269,800 ha during the same time. During monsoon season, Jeera producing districts of Gujarat received scanty rains, but Gujarat govt. announced assured irrigation for rabi crops. According to Commerce Ministry data, exports of jeera is down, 35% on year in September at 9,855 tonnes compared to 15,167 tonnes last year. However, jeera exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Aug) has crossed 1 lakh tonnes, up 54.8% compared to exports last year.

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MCX Dec cotton jumped to 3-week high on reports of production cut by the cotton body. Moreover, lower market arrivals also support prices. Cotton Association of India (CAI) cuts 2018-19 production estimate by 3 lakh bales to 340.25 lakh bales. However, according to market sources, Cotton output in India could drop 12 % to 32.5 million bales in the 2018/19 marketing year; the lowest in nine years due to limited rainfall in the top two producing states has slashed crop yields. Currently, the prices of cotton is up by almost 15-20% higher compared to last year so Indian traders are looking to import cheap cotton mainly from US, Egypt and Africa. As per trade sources, since October deals for the over 25 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg) of cotton have been signed, and around 15 lakh bales have already been shipped.

ICE Mar cotton Mar fell on Monday, on concerns over global demand ahead of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due on Tuesday. Oil fell nearly 2%, thus falling oil prices make synthetic fibers, which use petroleum, cheaper, thereby making cotton, a competing natural fiber, less appealing. October’s US cotton exports totaled 608,545 bales according to Census data, which was down 14.89% from last month but still 35.31% larger than a year ago. The USDA weekly Export Sales report showed all upland cotton 18/19 sales at 94,866 RB for the week of 11/29, down 46.34% from last week and 49.16% from last year. Upland export shipments were down 35.75% from a year ago, but up 25.69% from last week at 158,554 RB.

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Chana Jan futures down 1% on Monday and slip to 3-week low due to fresh selling by the market participants as NAFED is supplying chana in the physical market. Chana acreage is at 77.3 lakh ha, down 13% compared to last year acreage as on 7-Dec as per govt data. The govt have extend import curbs on all varieties of peas by 3 months until the end of December. Chana stocks are diminishing due to higher domestic consumption and lower imports of chana due to 60% import duty since March 2018. Chana exports from the country increased by 172% to 120,664 tonnes on year for Apr-Sep period while imports down by 93% for the same period.

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MCX CPO Dec jumped more than 2% on Monday tracking firm trend in International markets and weaker rupees. Currently it is trading at 15-month low. According to SEA monthly update during 2017-18, import of palm oil down by about 6.5% to 8.7 mt compared to 9.3 mt last year. The government cut tariff price of crude palm oil by $46 to $463 per tn and cut $30 per ton for refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil for the first half of December.

There are reports of sufficient stock levels in the country and expectation of cheaper imports from Malaysia due to zero duty. India may soon have to cut import duties on crude palm oils to 40% and refined palm oils to 50% to comply with a trade pact signed with Southeast Asian nations. Currently, crude and refined palm oils attract import duty of 44% and 54%, respectively.

Malaysian palm oil futures recovered from the earlier losses to close over 2 percent higher on Monday, due to reports of falling output for the first time in five months. Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed stocks rose 10.5% in November from October to 3.007 mt, while production in November fall 6.1 % from the previous month to 1.85 mt. Exports fell 12.9 % to 1.375 mt. Palm oil production typically falls in line with seasonal trend at the year-end, helping to reduce inventory levels. Higher stocks in Malaysia has been factored earlier and the price jump is because to expectation of lower production in coming months.

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Refined Soy Oil Jan Futures jumps 1.4% on Monday to trade at 4- week high due to weak rupees and as stockists are active in procuring new season soy oil. As per monthly SEA import report, India’s vegetable oil imports fell 2.7% on year to 15 million tn in the year ended October. Reports of higher domestic soy oil production and good imports in coming months will keep the stocks higher.

In a fortnightly notification, Government cut tariff value of crude soy oil by $10 to $707 per tn for the first half of December. India's y/y imports of crude soy oil for October higher by 20%, while the overall imports during the 2017-18 (Nov-Oct) is down by 8.1% to 30 lakh tonnes.

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Mustard Dec futures jumps higher on Monday due to bargain buying as it slipped to 15-weeks low. Rabi acreage for mustard is at par with last year acreage. The area under mustard/rapeseed cultivation is up by 0.34% as on 7-Dec at 59.6 lakh hectares (lha) as against 59.4 lha during the corresponding period in the previous rabi season. Prices are pressured due to slowing meal exports and sufficient stocks in the physical market. As per MOPA, the arrivals of mustard have been higher by 25% at 67.75 lakh tn compared to 54.25 lakh tonnes last year. As per SEA data, rapeseed meal exports down 18.8% on year to 56,089 tn in Nov. However, for Apr-Nov, India's rape meal exports up by 90% on year at 7.5 lt. China has dropped a years-long ban on rapeseed meal imports from India. Despite the lifting of ban, exports of mustard meal from India are unlikely in the near future because of the stringent norms.

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