NCDEX Jeera Nov futures jumps higher last week to 3-weeks high on expectations of lower production next season. Seasonally, the exports of Jeera dip during the 4th quarter of the calendar year. During monsoon season, Jeera producing districts of Gujarat received scanty rains, which will affect its production in next season. The prevailing water crisis may curtail jeera sowing by about 25% from last year’s 7.80 lakh ha. According to Commerce ministry data, exports in July surged 70.3% on year to 13,039 tonnes while for Apr-Jul period, exports were high by 76% at 88,885 tonnes compared to last year export volume.

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MCX Oct Cotton jumps higher on Friday to close 4-week high on improving physical demand and reports of delay in peak arrivals from Gujarat and Rajasthan is keeping prices holding on to current levels. According to CAI, cotton production in 2018/19 is likely to fall 4.7% from the previous season to 34.8 million bales due to scant rainfall and an attack of pink bollworms expected to affect the crop yields. As per CAI, India’s forward export contracts of cotton have more than doubled from about 7 lakh bales in September 2017, driven by increased demand from China.

ICE cotton futures rose 2% on Friday to register their biggest oneday percentage gain in more than a month, supported by positive U.S. export sales data and crop damage caused by Hurricane Michael. The USDA in its weekly export sales report showed net upland sales of 98,000 running bales (RB) for the 2018/2019, was well above the week prior. The report showed that exports of 208,400 RB were up 16% from the previous week. USDA forecast ending stocks in US at 5 million, up 300,000 bales due to reduction in exports. US August cotton exports totaled 117,000 MT (814,600 bales), down 12.5% from last year and 25.15% lower than July. China 2019 cotton import quota set at 894,000 tonnes, industry association said on Oct. 14. The import quota for 2019 is the same as last year.

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Chana Nov futures down more than 1% last week due to technical correction at higher levels after it touched 7-week high in the previous week. Market see some improving physical demand due to coming festival season and supplies have been steady. The government have extend import curbs on all varieties of peas by 3 months until the end of December to support prices. Government is likely to increase export incentives for chana (Bengal gram / Chickpea) to 15% from 7%. For Chana, the government has fixed the support price at 4,620 rupees per 100 kg, 220 rupees higher from the previous year. Chana exports from the country increased by 159% to 105,118 tonnes on year for Apr-Jul period.

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MCX Oct CPO futures closed lower last week tracking fall in International palm oil prices. However, weaker rupees and steady physical demand is supporting CPO prices in domestic market. According to SEA monthly update during August, import of palm oil increased sharply to 920,894 tn from 868,744 tn seen in the corresponding period a year ago and 550,180 tn a month ago.

The base import price of crude palm oil cut for the first half of October by $23 per tin to $549 per tn from $572 per tn. During Nov-Aug, palm oil imports (CPO + RBD) declined to 69.4 lt from 75.48 lt. Reports of higher stock levels in the country and expectation of cheaper imports from Malaysia due to zero duty may keep prices in check. It is still traded higher than last year levels due to weaker rupees and higher import duty

Malaysian palm oil futures rose 1% on Friday tracking gains in soyoil on the U.S. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Monthly USDA report was supportive for the soy and palm markets. MPOB said inventories in September rose 1.45% to 2.54 mt, an eight-month high, while production was up 14.38% to 1.85 mt. The prices are still under pressure due to lower exports figures as Malaysian palm oil shipments from Oct. 1-10 fell around 39% from the corresponding period last month despite Malaysia, announced Zero percent export tax export in October

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Refined Soy Oil Futures closed lower last week after it jumps to 13-weeks higher in the previous week mainly due to technical selling at higher levels. However, there is consistent increase in demand from stockists due to coming festival. Moreover, weak rupees is making imports expensive into the country. According to an official notification, government decreases base import prices of all edible oils. For the first fortnight of October, base import price of crude soyoil cut to $701 per tn from $714 per tn.

Currently, it is trading about 10.5% higher than last year levels supported by higher import duty, weaker rupees and improving physical demand. As per the data from SEA, import of vegetable (cooking) oils in August jumped to 15.12 lakh tonnes from 11.19 lakh tonnes in July, as pipelines were dried up due to lesser import during June and July 2018. Soyoil degummed imports also increase by 7.7% to 312,049 tons compared to 249,746tons in August.

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Mustard futures closed lower for the third consecutive week on reports of bumper oilseed crop in kharif and there is sufficient stocks in the physical market. However, prices have jumped on Friday on anticipation of some positive decisions for meal exports to China. The MSP for mustard increased by 200 rupees to 4,200 rupees per 100 kg by the govt. As per SEA data, India's rapeseed meal exports up 24% on year to 88,236 tn in August due to good export demand. For Apr-Aug, India's rape meal exports up by 107% on year at 4.90 lt. According to MOPA, country crushed about 5 lt of mustard in September, 18% higher on year. In 2018, about 49 lakh tonnes of mustard were crushed, up 13.3% on year.

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NCDEX Soybean jumps higher on Friday due to fresh buying from the lower level but closed lower for the week due to expecting bumper crop during next season and lowering meal exports data. As per SOPA, soybean production in 2018/19 may highest in last 5 year at 114.8 lakh tonnes 37.8% higher than last year production. As per 1st advance estimate 2018/19, soybean production is forecast about 22.5% higher at 134.6 lakh tonnes on year. India's soymeal exports fell 32% on year to 48,000 tn in September, according to the latest report by The Soybean Processors' Association of India. For Apr-Aug, India's soymeal exports down by 4% on year at 3.72 lakh tonnes. However, there is anticipation of good physical demand for crushing due to expectations over rising exports to China. China has shown interest in buying soybean de-oiled cake produced in Maharashtra.

CBOT Soybean Nov futures rose for a second straight session on Friday, supported by short covering and lower-than-expected soybean production by USDA crop forecast. The USDA pegged soybean production at 369.5 mt, with yields averaging a record 53.1 bushels per acre. Both figures were short of trade estimates. USDA now 18/19 world carryout at 110.04 mt, 1.78 mt larger than Sept. Worries about U.S. harvest delays and potential crop damage due to Midwest rains also supported futures. The USDA reported net U.S. soybean export sales at 444,300 tonnes last week, below trade expectations. China's soybean imports fell slightly in September from a year earlier but were ahead of market expectations, customs data showed on Friday.

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