Jeera On NCDEX Settled Up By 0.18% At 19450

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.18% at 19450 on lower domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. Though, some losses were capped as the arrivals have been lower during the second half of current month compared to last month same period. Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated. Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes, for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally. Syria has a significant share at 30,000-40,000 tonnes, while Turkey is very small at 10,000 tonnes. Going forward, arrivals will shrink.

After reaching a peak of 45,000-50,000 bags (each of 55 kg), arrivals at Unjha, have fallen to about 25,000-30,000 bags now and will shrink further to about 5000-10,000 bags by May. In the wake of high demand and reducing supplies, we expect a fresh peak levels in Jeera prices in the coming weeks. Lower carryover stock coupled with higher export demand may push up jeera prices, as traders fear tight supply conditions in the coming months. The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags (each of 55 kg) as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags, thereby reducing the availability even as the demand for exports and domestic consumption remains firm, trader sources said.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -186.65 Rupees to end at 19000 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.35% to settled at 17829 while prices up 35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 19185 and below same could see a test of 18920 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19630, a move above could see prices testing 19810. 
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